Can Scotland at last break the All Blacks hoodoo?

Rugby action
The All Blacks implemented three modifications to the squad that beat Ireland

Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital When: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Rugby action
Graham crossed the line in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in the previous encounter

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.

Christina Gordon
Christina Gordon

A passionate digital content curator with a focus on UK-based blogging communities and trends.