🔗 Share this article

While 2024 presidential bid, Donald Trump pledged to steer clear of expensive and frequently catastrophic foreign wars such as the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. This commitment was a central component of his isolationist “America first” policy. Yet within months taking office, American military units initiated bombings in Yemen and Iran. Looking southward, the president threatened to take control of the Panama Canal. Now, US defense officials is preparing for potential strikes against alleged “terrorist” drug cartels within the borders of Colombia and Mexico. Most immediate concern is a potential renewed administration effort to enforce regime change on Venezuela.

Venezuela's Response and Escalating Tensions

Venezuela's president, the nation's socialist strongman president, believes that this campaign is already begun. He alleges that the US is waging a covert conflict against his country following several deadly strikes on Venezuelan boats in the high seas. Trump recently informed Congress that the United States is involved in hostilities with drug cartels. He claims, without proof, that the attacked vessels transported drugs bound for the US – and that Maduro is responsible. He has placed a multimillion-dollar reward for Maduro’s head.

Regional governments are anxiously monitoring a significant US military buildup near Venezuela, including warships, F-35 fighter jets, an attack submarine and thousands of marines. Such powerful assets are hardly very useful in drug interdiction. But they might be used for attack, or to assist commando operations and airstrikes. Recently, Venezuela alleged Washington of an “illegal incursion” by at least five F-35s. The president says he is readying emergency powers to “protect our people” if Venezuela comes under attack by the American empire.

Analyzing the Motives Behind the Actions

What exactly is Trump doing? Drug smuggling is a serious problem – yet killing people arbitrarily in international waters, while frequent and difficult to prosecute, remains against international law. And anyway, United Nations reports state most of illegal drugs reaching the US originates in Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is mostly not trafficked through Venezuela. The president, a former avoided military service, enjoys playing the tough leader. He is now trying to deport Venezuelan immigrants, a large number previously escaped to America due to sanctions he previously enforced. Experts propose he desires Venezuela’s vast oil, gas and natural wealth.

It’s true that the president and John Bolton, hoped to replace Maduro back in 2019 in what Caracas claimed an overthrow attempt. Additionally, Maduro’s recent electoral victory was broadly condemned as rigged. If allowed to vote freely, Venezuelans would likely vote out him. Furthermore, opposing political beliefs are a factor, too. The leader, unworthy heir to his predecessor's socialist movement, is offensive to the president's dominant idea of a US-dominated the Americas, where the historic policy rules again and free-market capitalism operates unchecked.

Absence of Clear Strategy

Yet given his inept missteps in other key foreign issues, the probable reason for Trump’s actions is that, as usual, he lacks understanding what he’s doing – regarding Caracas or the region overall. There’s no plan. He acts aggressively, takes rash misjudgments, fans fears of foreigners and forms policies based on if he approves of other leaders. In 2019, when the Venezuelan leader on the ropes, Trump blinked. Today, large-scale armed involvement in the country is still improbable. More likely is a heightened campaign of coercion involving destabilization, sanctions, naval attacks, and air and commando raids.

Far from undermining and marginalizing Maduro's government, Trump may achieve the reverse. Maduro is already exploiting the situation to assume dictatorial “special powers” and mobilize public opinion with nationalist appeals for unity. Trump’s aggression towards other socialist Latin American countries – such as Colombia – and overconfident support for rightwing populists from Argentina and El Salvador – is provoking a regional backlash, too. Most governments detest the thought of a reversion to the bad old days of Yanqui interference in Washington’s “back yard”.

Regional Reaction and Foreign Policy Setbacks

The administration's effort to employ punitive tariffs and sanctions to strong-arm Brazil into granting amnesty to its former conservative president Jair Bolsonaro failed spectacularly last month. Huge crowds demonstrated in Brazilian cities to defend what they rightly saw as an attack on national independence and rule of law. The popularity of the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, increased. Brazil is not, and never again will we be, anyone’s colony,” he declared. Lula told the US president, in effect, to get lost. Then, at their meeting at the UN general assembly, Trump backed off and was conciliatory.

The perception of a significant regression in US-Latin America ties grows ineluctably. “His administration views the region primarily as a security threat, associating it with drug trafficking, criminal networks and incoming migration,” a noted expert cautioned earlier this year. “The US approach has become fundamentally negative, prioritizing independent moves and dominance rather than partnership,” she added, noting: “The region is viewed not as an equal partner and more as a sphere of influence to be dominated according to American goals.”

Aggressive Advisers and Rising Language

The president's hardline advisers are part of the problem: especially a senior official, White House deputy chief of staff, and the secretary of state, a former Republican senator from Florida serving as secretary of state and security advisor. In his view, a long-standing opponent of socialist rulers in Cuba and Nicaragua, the Venezuelan leader is unfinished business. Justifying the boat attacks, he declared: Seizures are ineffective. The solution is when you blow them up … This will continue.” Coming from the top US diplomat, this is quite a statement.

Long-term Implications

The president's attempts to reprise the position of Latin American neighbourhood policeman, emulating former president Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist frequent meddler – are backward-looking, risky and self-defeating. Long-term, the big winner will most likely be Beijing, an increasingly influential regional actor, economic partner and key participant of the Brics group countries. As the US severs ties globally, the administration is making China great again.